Trump's Trade War: Is America's Economy on the Brink of Collapse?

2025-08-01 18:00:42.395

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. hiring is slowing sharply as President Donald Trump’s erratic and radical trade policies paralyze businesses and raise doubts about the outlook for the world’s largest economy. U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, well short of the 115,000 expected. Worse, revisions shaved a stunning 258,000 jobs off May and June payrolls. And the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as Americans dropped out of the labor force and the ranks of the unemployed rose by 221,000. “A notable deterioration in U.S. labor market conditions appears to be underway,” said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets. “We have been forecasting this since the tariff and trade war erupted this spring and more restrictive immigration restrictions were put in place. Overall, this report highlights the risk of a harder landing for the labor market.” Economists have been warning that the rift with every U.S. trading partner will begin to appear this summer and the Friday jobs report appeared to sound the bell. “We’re finally in the eye of the hurricane,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. “After months of warning signs, the July jobs report confirms that the slowdown isn’t just approaching—it’s here.” U.S. markets recoiled at the jobs report and the Dow tumbled more than 600 points Friday. Revelations in the new data raise questions about the health of the job market and the economy as President Donald Trump pushes forward an unorthodox overhaul of American trade policy. Trump has discarded decades of U.S. efforts to lower trade barriers globally, instead, imposing hefty import taxes — tariffs — on products from almost every country on earth. Trump believes the levies will bring manufacturing back to America and raise money to pay for the massive tax cuts he signed into law July 4. Mainstream economists warned that the cost of the tariffs will be passed along to Americans, both businesses and households. That has begun. Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Ford, Best Buy, Adidas, Nike, Mattel, Shein, Temu, Stanley Black & Decker, have all hiked prices due to U.S. tariffs. Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that overseas exporters have absorbed just one-fifth of the rising costs from tariffs, while Americans and U.S. businesses have picked up the lion’s share of the tab. Trump has sowed uncertainty in the erratic way he’s rolled the tariffs out — announcing, then suspending them, then coming up with new ones. Overnight, Trump signed an executive order that set new tariffs on a wide swath of U.S. trading partners to that go into effect on Aug. 7, and that comes after a flurry of unexpected tariff-related actions this week. “There was a clear, significant, immediate, tariff effect on the labor market and employment growth essentially stalled, as we were dealing with so much uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and for tariffs,” said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist for the brokerage T. Rowe Price. Still, Uruci said the data suggests we could be past the worst, as hiring actually did pick up a bit in July from May and June’s depressed levels. “I’m not overly pessimistic on the U.S. economy based on this morning’s data,” she said, though she does think that hiring will remain muted in the coming months as the number of available workers remains limited due to reduced immigration and an aging population. “Because of immigration policy, labor supply growth has nearly ground to a halt,” said Guy Berger, senior fellow at the Burning Glass Institute, which studies employment trends. “So we’re going to have very weak employment growth. And we look like southern Europe or Japan.” Still, with fewer workers available, the economy doesn’t need to generate many jobs to soak up the unemployed. That could keep the unemployment rate from climbing much, Berger added. Trump has sold the tariffs hikes as a way to boost American manufacturing, but factories cut 11,000 jobs last month after shedding 15,000 in June and 11,000 in May. The federal government, where employment has been targeted by the Trump administration, lost 12,000 jobs. Jobs in administration and support fell by nearly 20,000.