Seasonal models forecast a potentially record-strong El Nino, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific, which is expected to bring extreme weather and alter global patterns.
Seasonal climate models are predicting an El Nino pattern that could become the strongest on record, leading to more extreme weather globally. El Nino is a cyclical, natural warming of the equatorial Pacific waters, which then redistributes heat and alters global weather patterns; its opposite is La Nina, characterized by cooler waters. Experts note that subsurface heat in the Pacific is currently moving eastward and rising to the surface, marking the initial stages of the event. The WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update confirms rapidly rising sea-surface temperatures and expresses high confidence in El Nino's onset and subsequent intensification. Typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting nine to twelve months, this particular El Nino is causing alarm among scientists like Daniel Swain due to the historically large volume and intensity of subsurface warm water anomalies, a critical indicator of its strength.
