Aaron Judge makes his highly anticipated return to the Yankees lineup against the Colorado Rockies. Bookmakers heavily favor the Yankees (-340 ML) and have set various props for Judge, including -190 for a hit and +260 for a home run. The article analyzes Judge's favorable matchup against struggling rookie Gabriel Hughes and recommends a specific bet: Aaron Judge to draw over 0.5 walks at +110 odds, citing Hughes' walk rate and Judge's patience.
Aaron Judge will return to the Yankees lineup on Tuesday night against the Colorado Rockies, and the bookmakers are expecting it to be a happy return for No. 99. Not only are The Bronx Bombers massive -340 favorites on the moneyline, but they are -155 to cover the run line (-1.5), and they are even money to win by at least three runs. Judge, meanwhile, is -190 to record at least one hit and +260 to hit a home run in his first game since May 31. The Yankees sure picked a cozy situation for Judge to get back into action. Not only will the reigning AL MVP be taking on one of baseball’s worst teams at the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, but he’ll face a struggling rookie, Gabriel Hughes. Hughes will stand opposite Cam Schlittler, the clear favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Hughes, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, has endured some serious bumps in his first season in the Big Leagues. The Alaska native boasts a 6.19 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but his Statcast data is actually encouraging. Hughes does not generate enough swings and misses, but he has shown a penchant for avoiding hard contact. The 25-year-old ranks in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 90th percentile in barrel percentage, and the 74th percentile in average exit velocity. Hughes’ profile gives me pause when it comes to backing Judge to hit a home run, but I do think there’s another plus-money avenue to explore. As much as Judge is known for his prodigious power, he’s also one of the league’s most patient hitters. That lines up well against Hughes, as the right-hander is no stranger to handing out free passes (41st percentile in walk rate). Hughes will be well aware of the situation when Judge digs in for his first at-bat, so it would not be a surprise to see the inexperienced hurler handle the Yankee slugger with the utmost care. I like the plus-money price on Judge to draw at least one walk in his return to action. The Play: Aaron Judge over 0.5 walks (+110, bet365 Sportsbook) Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
