The 2024 Oscar race is unprecedentedly unpredictable, fueled by increased diversity and toxic discourse. Anonymous ballots reveal Jessie Buckley as a sure win, Amy Madigan as a dark horse, and a tight Best Picture battle between Sinners and One Battle After Another. New, unpopular voting rules are also causing major friction among Academy members.
Since the #OscarsSoWhite controversy in 2016, the Academy has embraced diversity, making the Oscar race increasingly unpredictable and broadening the definition of an 'Oscar movie.' This year's competition is exceptionally tight, leading to heightened, often toxic, online discourse and a reliance on anonymous Oscar ballots for clues. Jessie Buckley is considered a lock for an acting award, with widespread support despite any online backlash. The Best Supporting Actress category is a close three-way race, with Amy Madigan emerging as a strong contender with significant goodwill. For Best Picture, Sinners is showing a late surge and appears to have an edge over One Battle After Another based on anonymous voter sentiment, though a desire to 'spread the wealth' could prevent a sweep. Other films like Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Bugonia, and Train Dreams also garnered some support. Paul Thomas Anderson is a leading candidate for Best Director, with many believing it's his overdue moment, in a close contest with Ryan Coogler. The Best Actor race is surprisingly open; while Timothée Chalamet faced some backlash, Michael B Jordan is the favorite, but Wagner Moura is gaining significant spoiler momentum. Adding to the drama, the Academy's new rule requiring members to watch all nominated films in a category is proving highly unpopular and widely disregarded, with some members openly admitting non-compliance and even questioning the awards' relevance.
