The U.S. job market experienced a turbulent period, gaining 64,000 jobs in November but losing 105,000 in October, largely due to federal worker departures. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest since 2021, signaling a significant cooling of hiring momentum amidst economic uncertainties, delayed government reports, and the Federal Reserve's divided stance on interest rates.
The United States job market presented a mixed and concerning picture, with a gain of 64,000 jobs in November, which surpassed forecasts, but a substantial loss of 105,000 jobs in October. The October decline was primarily driven by a 162,000 drop in federal workers, attributed to Trump administration cutbacks and a reported 'purge' of government payrolls. These job reports, delayed by a 43-day federal government shutdown, complicated the Federal Reserve's policy deliberations. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November, marking its highest level since 2021 and an increase from 4.4% in September. This rise follows a low of 3.4% in April 2023. Overall hiring momentum has significantly slowed, with average monthly job creation falling to 35,000 since March, compared to 71,000 in the prior year. This deceleration is linked to uncertainties over President Trump’s tariffs, the lingering impact of the Fed's high interest rates from 2022-2023, and the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence and automation in various sectors. In response to the weakening job market, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point for the third time this year, although the decision faced dissent from three officials, highlighting internal divisions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that hiring might have been overcounted by approximately 60,000 jobs per month since spring. Worker earnings showed minimal growth, with average hourly pay rising just 0.1% from October and 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021. Sector-wise, healthcare added over 46,000 jobs and construction 28,000 in November, while manufacturing continued its seven-month decline, shedding 5,000 jobs. Experts suggest that employers are hesitant to hire new staff but also reluctant to lay off existing ones, leading to a 'soft footing' in the labor market. The article also highlights the struggles of individuals like Amy Beckrich, who lost her HR job and faces significant challenges in finding new employment, pointing to a 'broken' hiring system.
