Secret US government war games from six years ago predicted that any scenario leading to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's downfall—be it a popular revolt, a coup, or a foreign strike—would result in prolonged chaos, a refugee crisis, and no clear resolution, despite opposition leaders' assurances of a peaceful transition.
Six years ago, US government "war games" explored three grim scenarios for a post-Nicolás Maduro Venezuela: a popular revolt, a palace coup, or a US "decapitation" strike. All simulations consistently predicted "prolonged chaos" with no clear way out and a fresh exodus of refugees. Douglas Farah, a Latin America expert involved in these 2019 strategizing efforts, warned of military violence against civilians, a power vacuum with rival armed actors, or asymmetric attacks against foreign occupiers by loyalists and Colombian rebels. He feared a "huge mess that would last a while," potentially years, and suggested Washington might resort to mercenary groups, leading to an "Iraqi-type scenario." While Venezuelan opposition leaders like María Corina Machado and Miguel Pizarro reject claims of inevitable bloodshed, emphasizing their country's democratic culture, many experts and South American diplomats remain skeptical. Brazil's chief foreign policy adviser warned of a "Vietnam-style" regional conflict. Juan González, a former White House official, expressed fears of violent retaliation, likening Maduro's potential end to Mussolini or Gaddafi, and advocated for a negotiated solution, even if it requires difficult compromises like immunity for some officials. The article underscores the complex and potentially catastrophic consequences of Maduro's removal, regardless of the method.
